The August 2025 study was built on an unusually powerful dataset—high-frequency payroll records from millions of American workers generated by ADP, the largest payroll software firm in the country. What Brynjolfsson and his co-authors found was striking: Since the widespread adoption of generative AI tools beginning in late 2022, employment for early-career workers in the most AI-exposed occupations fell by 13% on a relative basis, even after controlling for broader firm-level disruptions. Older, more experienced workers in the same fields, meanwhile, saw their employment hold steady or grow.
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